Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.724290 13.164107 14.815422 16.874113 19.407895 22.474405 26.547388
2024-10-27 9.610920 11.262182 13.292196 16.036409 19.759305 24.816824 32.574338
2024-11-03 9.391083 11.453949 14.165125 18.144120 24.142638 33.475400 50.755010
2024-11-10 8.870944 11.127494 14.238726 19.095974 27.061820 40.997589 71.987427
2024-11-17 7.966561 10.145397 13.229252 18.214759 26.806609 42.980605 83.788932
2024-11-24 7.415985 9.589466 12.749046 18.046402 27.676639 47.371711 105.452321
2024-12-01 6.972803 9.137659 12.359968 17.943404 28.613006 52.284771 135.003352
2024-12-08 6.630772 8.799302 12.100331 18.005761 29.867907 58.540492 180.979610
2024-12-15 6.371844 8.560354 11.966508 18.259476 31.573810 66.938533 261.662162
2024-12-22 5.981067 8.087936 11.406087 17.644537 31.230313 69.352713 317.928525
2024-12-29 5.744437 7.838524 11.191486 17.653084 32.324546 77.045457 468.421597
2025-01-05 5.438342 7.459136 10.725478 17.110909 31.971703 79.639551 595.584258
2025-01-12 5.065820 6.972145 10.073069 16.194077 30.682275 78.851930 695.780039
2025-01-19 4.741957 6.547490 9.502020 15.387651 29.545360 78.292881 828.053250
2025-01-26 4.864726 6.852474 10.228601 17.358557 36.445853 121.110457 28109.894224
2025-02-02 4.814019 6.864836 10.429870 18.246581 40.748506 162.373316 NaN
2025-02-09 4.552408 6.504479 9.910491 17.424151 39.317007 161.915886 NaN
2025-02-16 4.391974 6.308787 9.687446 17.266866 40.110728 181.952291 NaN
2025-02-23 4.251015 6.138832 9.500412 17.170618 41.110039 207.725868 NaN
2025-03-02 4.137637 6.010488 9.383530 17.228890 42.724195 247.415211 NaN
2025-03-09 4.050926 5.923895 9.340949 17.465911 45.160664 313.197153 NaN
2025-03-16 3.886176 5.691665 8.995402 16.891226 44.110219 320.356885 NaN
2025-03-23 3.790321 5.577928 8.879589 16.899218 45.564057 387.843488 NaN